Theros draft tech: How to win off of two lands

With Pete and Jed out of town for Jed's bachelor party I figured I had to really represent this weekend. On Friday night I went to Green Lake Games with Derek to draft Theros. Pack one, pick one was very easy:
                                              
Besides being a $30 card currently, he is an utter bomb in this format. He's so much bigger and faster than anything else that it's a blowout vs any deck. Green can be the worse to face with Nessian Asp holding him off pretty well, Lash of the Whip and Rage of Purphoros are common removal that take him out, but beyond that he trumps the format. Knowing I would be red and quite aggressive I was looking to go RW heroic. A fourth pick Magma Jet made me very happy to be in red, and I managed to pick up some mediocre early white drops. By the end of the first pack I wasnt seeing anything but a lot of green. Like thirteenth pick Vulpine Goliath. Pack two started off uneventful, picking up a couple more red and white cards. Around pick five or six the green was flowing so hard I made the decision to move in. I likely should have realized this earlier in pack one. I think more than most formats this is going to be a very important one to be able to read signals and have confidence when to jump ship for a safer vessel. (The next draft is a prime example of reading signals paying off).

The rest of the draft saw me picking solid green card after solid green card with an occasional red treat. After it was over we realized Derek, who was two to my left also went RG after opening Xenagos, the Reveler, but beyond that there was one other red drafter and no one else in green! Needless to say we both easily went 2-0 and then were paired in the final round. After agreeing to split the prize, we played and I won in three, almost single handedly off of Stormbreath Dragon. I think all in all his deck was much better than mine, he was in the colors from the get go and had much better acceleration. I think I had better three drops, but that doesnt matter much in the mirror match. Xenagos hit the table on turn four of game one but died on my next turn to the haste Dragon.

My round two opponent was a pretty weird match. After both mulling to five, I had a three land, double three drop hand and proceeded to steam roll his one-lander. Game two was something like Hopeful Eidolon into Ordeal of Heliod versus my five drops so I didnt last long. Game three I was getting beaten down by:
                
Turn six or so Stormbreath comes down to stabilize, a role only possible because of his amazing pro white. With his offense shut down I slowly start to build up my board until eventually it looks like:
                
I am a turn away from starting to beat with the Asp with threat of monstrosity when he goes:
                                      
and announces "-3: wrath most your team." I look down at the one mountain I have untapped and then to the Coordinated Assault in my hand. I cast it targeting his Triad of Fates and the Wingsteed Rider (which has a +1/+1 counter on it by this time) causing Elspeth to wreck his team too. I then proceed to suit up my Courser with a Purphoros's Emissary to take out Elspeth and go on to win the game.

I enjoyed the draft and do think that green is very powerful in Theros limited. It has likely the best common three drop in Nessian Courser and five drop in Nessian Asp. Pairing with red was good, though mostly just because of Stormbreath as I only had Magma Jet and Boulderfall for removal. In general green is a bit slow and needs some early removal coming from a likely pairing with red or black (or a lot of acceleration). Because of the weakness of cheap removal in both those colors I actually think blue may be a much better partner for green. It has great psuedo-removal in Voyage's End and Griptide, and the ocean color surprisingly has fantastic monsters to beat alongside green's (and the best flyers of the set). My only other observation of note during this draft was a mono black deck, which needless to say went 3-0 on the back of many Gray Merchants of Asphodel and Disciples of Phenax.

Despite liking green's strengths (Id also played it at the prerelease going UG) I was really interested in what a fast aggro deck could do in this format. I think this means going W/x heroic, although perhaps RB can put a somewhat aggro Minotaur deck together. Sitting down at Card Kingdom this Saturday to draft I was therefore someone disappointed in my first pick:
                                           
Dont get me wrong, this card is clearly a bomb first pick, but it seemed to fit much better into a controlling big monster UG deck like Id played before. I believe I got a second pick Triton Tactics over not much else in any other colors. A third pick Sip of Hemlock told me (or so i thought, turns out the kid took a Gray Merchant over it) that black was open. A UB controlling deck sounded interesting so I was excited to try to pursue that. I believe I then got a Triton Fortune Hunter and another Sip of Hemlock (seriously kid what black cards were you taking!!) before seeing this fifth or sixth:
                                           
This is a screaming, flashing, exploding signal that white heroic it completely open. I quickly moved in and picked up a few more good creature and tricks in the rest of the pack, including a second Triton Tactics (and was very happy that two of my three early blue picks fit perfectly into the deck). Pack two I got insanely hooked up with every single white heroic card I could want. There was not much blue, despite me never shipping anything good in the color, the neighbor to my left had gone into it. But that didnt matter, really the two Triton Tactics would have been all I needed.

Pack three may have been one of the weirdest packs I have ever drafted. I expecteded to get insanely hooked up as I had seen pretty solid white in pack one and cut it very hard in pack two. The pack I opened had one white card and one blue card, both very unexciting (I think I got a Chosen by Heliod here). The pack next passed to me also had only one card of each of my colors, both unmemorable. From there on out I saw zero blue (the person to my right turned out to be in it all along which looking back made sense) but super shockingly I think I only ended up with two playable white cards out of pack three. I think there was one other white drafter at the table (who wasnt on the diehard heroic plan) and it was simply that all of the pack threes we opened were super weak in white. I guess that just happens. On the other hand it gave me opportunity to hate cards such as Coordinated Assault, Nessian Courser, Shredding Wings and a thirteenth pick Stoneshock Giant (sorry dude to my left who was in red!!)

Here is the list I started with:
Creatures:
One drop- Soldier of the Pantheon, Favored Hoplite, Hopeful Eidelon x 3
Two drop- Travelling Philosopher, Phalanx Leader, Calvary Pegasus x 2
Three drop- Triton Fortune Hunter, Wingsteed Rider, Lagonna-Band Elder, Observant Alseid x 2
Four drop- Heliod's Emissary, Ephara's Warden
Spells:
One drop- Gods Willing x 2, Triton Tactics x 2
Two drop- Ordeal of Heliod, Voyage's End
Three drop- Dauntless Onslaught
Four drop- Griptide
Land:
Plains x 11, Island x 5

That's right, a 16 land draft deck that has five one drops and tops out at four. If there is a fast deck in this format I think this is it. Dauntless Onslaught is often a two-for-one double heroic enabler, Gods Willing a one-for-one heroic enable (plus scry!) that can also be used to push the last few points through by making something unblockable, while Triton Tactics is at the bare minimum a one mana Frost Breath double heroic enabler, that, like Voyage's End and Griptide, often acts like a Time Walk versus the slower beefier decks of the format.

Side note: tonight I realized that the rewards from the Ordeals are separately triggered from "When you sacrifice..." them, NOT part of the attacking trigger. I dont think there is currently anything in standard that allows you to sacrifice enchantments, but if you could youd get all the reward without having to go through the hassle of trying to attack your opponent a few times.

I feel insanely lucky to have gotten Favored Hoplite, Phalanx Leader, Wingsteed Rider, and Dauntless Onslaught in the same deck. Im not sure how likely this is to happen, even one other person at the table going white heroic might spoil the plan, but I do think anytime I open a Phalanx Leader I will slam it and try to go this route. The fact that I got almost all of these cards over one pack makes me think that if you are dedicated to it over all three you will be fine (as long as a neighbor isnt cutting you.)

Triton Fortune Hunter and Calvary Pegasus turned out to be surprisingly good in the deck. In hindsight the Pegasus is clearly a crucial ingredient to this deck, half of my one and two drops were human and it so often let me just crash through the air while leaving back a Hopeful Eidolon or something to chump. The merfolk soldier drew me at least one card every time it saw play, and likely averaged around two, which is something very important to a deck like this that cant afford to run out of steam. The scry on Gods Willing and Voyage's End help with this, but nothing works as good as just drawing cards.

The weakest card by far was Ephara's Warden and I quickly realized that it should be replaced by Chosen By Heliod versus fast decks and Sea God's Revenge versus the slow ones. Of sideboard note, I did have an additional Chosen By Heliod and a Vanquish the Foul, which just seems strictly weaker than Sea God's Revenge.

And now, the story of how I won the last game of the night off of two lands. Over the entire game. After mulling to six. My hand of seven was one Island and all white cards. While shuffling after mulliganing, and revealing that it was a one lander, my opponent stated "oh yeah I couldnt play a one lander" I made the remark that "oh i certainly could have a good one land hand." Of which my six carder was a (semi-weak) example:
               
               
This is keepable because hitting the turn two land likely gives you +19 life from Ordeal on the Eidolon, while if you get to three lands over the first four draws you also likely win. Instead my next six draws were:
                
               
which also apparently works. He was racing me pretty well with a couple of Cavern Lampads, but my ordeal triggered while I was at two life. And that is how I finished my run to 4-0 with only two lands in play.