In the old days, the value was clear. Skip the pre-release events and play as many sealed release queues as you can find the time for. But where is the value now?
The big news is that sealed release events are no longer the overwhelmingly great value they were formerly. In the table below, I have organized all the relevant entry and expected value (EV) details of all the formats. The EV calculations are based on a 50-50 chance of winning each match. If you are reading a blog like this one, your results should skew a little better.
| event type | players | entry cost |
total prizes |
prize EV | EV/entry |
| Pre-release Sealed |
16 | 25 | 32 | 2.000 | 0.080 packs |
| 4-3-2-2 Draft | 8 | 14* | 11 | 1.375 | 0.098 packs |
| 8-4 Draft | 8 | 14* | 12 | 1.500 | 0.107 packs |
| Swiss Draft | 8 | 14* | 12 | 1.500 | 0.107 packs |
| Pre-release Swiss Draft |
8 | 15 | 13 | 1.625 | 0.108 packs |
| Theros Release Sealed |
16
|
20
|
36
|
2.250
|
0.113 packs
|
| "Old" Release Sealed Events |
16
|
24
|
63
|
3.938
|
0.164 packs!
|
*Normal 8-player draft queues can be entered with 3 packs plus two tickets, which lowers the typical actual cost of entry to somewhere between 12-13 tickets, which boosts your EV.
Overall, wizards has flattened the prize payouts so that there is not one kind of event that sticks out like a sore thumb. In addition, the sealed release queues have had their cost to enter lowered while cutting more prizes from the winner's end of the prize pool. I get the feeling this is designed to encourage the "budget" players to enter more events while making them less rewarding for the grinder crowd that is doing the slow bleed or is nearly infinite.
This change is unwelcome for those of us who used to play as many release sealed events as possible, but we shouldn't complain too loudly. If the prize payout ratio doesn't suit you, vote with your dollars and don't play, but in reality release sealed is still the best base value Theros limited event you have the opportunity to play in.
One other thing to remember is that if you are selling off your limited leavings, the first week of a new set is always the most expensive 95% of the cards will ever be. Sealed events do provide you with 6 packs worth of cards to sell and twice the chance of opening whichever money mythic is commanding the highest price. For me, the goal is to play Magic, so that bit doesn't much matter to me. What matters more is that in a 16-player event, we get an extra round.
Surprisingly to me, the Pre-release Swiss draft is up there in terms of raw EV. That event also only accepts tickets for entry, but if you must play during the first weekend, choose Swiss Draft ahead of Pre-release sealed.
The old release sealed structure was well out of line with the regular formats, so it shouldn't surprise us to see it go. I only hope you got a chance to take advantage of it while it was still here. However, the new release queues remain some of the best value available during release time, but due to the entry options of the draft formats, once you can get your hands on some Theros packs for less than retail, drafting will be the way to go.
As always, just say no to 4-3-2-2 draft and pre-release sealed events!
booooooooooo
ReplyDelete