Pre-Draft HW: Reading Pack 1/Pick 5 in EMN

As I continue to struggle with drafting something not-garbage, I'm trying to get better at reading the 'pack 1 pick 5'. My rule of thumb is to take the best possible card in the pack for the first few picks, regardless of color (unless it's REALLY close). Then starting in pick 4/5, I start looking for clues as to what color(s) might be open. So this is an informal list of commons & uncommons that have an above average chance of having been the best card in that color in that pack. For example, Clear Shot is instant-speed, high-quality removal. If I see it in pick 4, that means three people passed on it. They would have only passed on it if they picked three other cards they like more and it's HIGHLY unlikely that they would have picked another green card over it.

Now of course this isn't a foolproof metric. Obviously if Clear Shot and Prey Upon are in the same pack, seeing a Prey Upon pick 4 could mean someone snapped up Clear Shot earlier. But in general, the later you see one of these cards the higher the odds that said color is open.

That's the idea at least.

Green

    

Not sure on the Prey Upon but there are so many small toughness creatures that I think just having a 2/3 with a Prey Upon will net you a card most times, let alone when you have a flipped werewolf. Removal, a built in 2-for-1 (Wolfkin Bond), and mana acceleration that can flip late game (quadrant all-star) round it out.

Red

   

Well it's red. See direct damage take direct damage, I'm sure there are worse drafting heuristics out there.

Black

    

Removal removal removal and two creatures that I'm pretty high on. I think black is going to be grindy outside of B/R madness

White

    

Blessed Alliance is the weak sister of the bunch (it's not Silverstrike) that I have the least faith in being a 'signal'. The rest are highly reliable removal and a very high quality creature/trick.

Blue

    

Wow, I have no clue what blue is going to do. Drag Under is a reliable bounce that also draws you a card, so no complaints there. I suspect both the Grizzled Angler and Ingenious Scab are going to be very reliable 3-drops that almost every blue deck will run. As for the maniac and the cultist, I think blue is going to be either the 'mill yourself to delirium/graveyard shenanigans and/or the key emerge color' Both of these work(ish) for that.